Economic Impacts of Staged Development of Oil Sands Projects in Alberta (2010-2035)
Study Released June 15, 2011
CERI Study 125
The Alberta oil sands industry is once again expanding with a number of major projects under development and still more proposed for the future, reflecting a considerable growth that was deferred during 2008-2009 recession. New pipelines will be needed to ship bitumen crude to destinations in the United States and/or Canada’s west coast to reach Pacific Rim markets. This report looks at export pipeline proposals, namely TransCanada’s Keystone XL, Enbridge’s Northern Gateway and Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain expansion and evaluates the economic impacts of staged development of Alberta’s oil sands projects according to the proposed in-service dates of these pipelines. The report shows that without additional pipeline capacity, the benefits that will be lost in Alberta, Canada and the US are substantial. This study captures the direct, indirect and induced effects of oil sands infrastructure investments and ongoing operational expenditures in four different scenarios. Using Input/Output economic modeling techniques, the report details the economic impacts in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), employment, employee compensation and government tax revenues.