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PACIFIC ACCESS: PART II - ASIA-DIRECTED OIL PATHWAYS AND THEIR ECONOMIC IMPACTS

Pacific Access: Part II - Asia-Directed OIl Pathways and Their Economic Impacts

Study Released July 19, 2012

CERI Study 129

Alternative transportation networks are emerging in the North American market to relieve constraints at Cushing and at rapidly developing shale oil plays. However, these options are more expensive than pipeline alternatives and serve markets that are shrinking. Moreover, these markets have ready access to alternative supplies from either imported or shale oil crudes. As such, it has become increasingly important to find alternative markets for oil sand’s bitumen. A pipeline to tidewater on the Pacific Coast is the most economic way of reaching Asian refineries which are capable of accepting both bitumen and synthetic crude oil (SCO). Part II of CERI’s Pacific Access report examines the available alternative transportation modes in North America and the impacts of accessing the Pacific markets. CERI’s Regional Input- Output (I/O) model is introduced and used to calculate the potential economic impacts of construction and operation of two major proposed crude pipeline projects in Western Canada: the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX) and the Northern Gateway Pipeline.

Study_129_Part_II_Full_Report Study_129_Part_II_Executive_Summary